Fantasy Football: Best Buys and Overpriced For Week 4
By Bill Enright
Special to Pro Football Guru
There’s 7 Million Dollars up for grabs in Week 4 with $1.2 million going to 1st, $500,000 going to 2nd, and the top 83,000 teams gets paid out.
We are talking about BIG BIG bucks here.
Last week our Absolute Steals included some of the best performers at their positions: Tyrod Taylor (24 fantasy points), Devonta Freeman (45 fantasy points) and Larry Fitzgerald (37.4 fantasy points). Perhaps just as important the players we told you to stay away from were absolute DUDS: Coline Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, and Lamar Miller.
FFChamps.com helps our members win MORE money on DraftKings. Get your FREE membership to FFChamps with just a $5 deposit on DraftKings. Plus you’ll get a FREE entry into a Million Dollar Contest with the winner taking home $100,000.
So naturally we are trying to help our members take home some money and we’ll do that right here each and every week with our Best Buy and Over Priced players.
Now remember, the Millionaire Maker contest is a Guaranteed Prize Pool, so strategy is VERY different than Head to Head or 50/50s. This article isn’t necessarily a strategy for one type of contest over another, but rather players we are using in various lineups, in various contests. If you are shooting for the Millionaire Maker, you HAVE to choose based on upside and are really looking for about 20-30 points from ALL your players because you’ll want a total score of over 200. It’s just the nature of the beast when you are competing against half a million people.
If you want to steadily increase your bankroll over the course of the season, try out a 50/50 and use players you know consistently score 15-20 points, typically a score of 150 will get you cash in a 50/50. We break down the different types of contests here.
So without further ado…
Best Buy Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers: $7,900 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Carson Palmer just lit up this secondary for 22.5 fantasy points and Rodgers is perhaps playing the best football of his career. Will be heavily owned, but starting your team with this QB in a 50/50 is guaranteeing your squad at least 25 points.
Cam Newton: $7,000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A dominant 32 points in Week 3 and stellar 28 points in Week 2 and it’s pretty clear Cam is getting it done with basically just Greg Olsen to target. Thankfully he’s getting it done with his legs, scoring one rushing TD the last two weeks.
Andy Dalton: $5,900 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: The “red rifle” was RED HOT in Week 3 scoring 35 fantasy points and is facing a defense that is getting torched by QBs. In fact they’ve given up the MOST fantasy points to opposing QBs and have allowed 10 passing TDs in just 3 games.
ABSOLUTE STEAL: DEREK CARR $5,300 vs. Chicago Bears: What do you get when you combine a QB with back to back 300 yard games with 5 TDs during that same span with a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to opposing QBs? You get DEREK CARR as the absolute steal of the week, that’s what!!!! Carr has been on a tear and is getting it done through the air thanks to standout rookie Amari Cooper and the resurgence of Michael Crabtree.
BIG RISK/BIG REWARD/LOW PRICE: BLAKE BORTLES: $5,100 vs. Indianapolis Colts: It’s not the sexiest pick, but Bortles is averaging 19 fantasy points his last two games and is playing a Colts team who apparently doesn’t really care about defense. Bortles will have to air it out to keep up with the Colts Offense.
Over Priced Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning: $7,000 vs. Buffalo Bills: Eli is doing OK. Not great, not bad. But OK is just not good enough to cash in any DraftKings contests.
Sam Bradford: $6,000 vs. Washington Redskins: Happy to see the Eagles Offense show some form of life in Week 3, but this game in Washington may be postponed/canceled because of Hurricane Joaquin. Just avoid that headache of changing out your QB last minute incase that actually does occur.
Matthew Stafford: $5,700 vs. Seattle Seahawks: The price is actually low but the Lions are such a mess that there’s no way to risk using him against the Legion of Boom in Seattle.
Best Buy Runing Backs
Eddie Lacy: $6,900 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Chris Johnson just stomped out the 49ers defense and with Lacy now two weeks removed from his ankle injury, we think he’ll do the same.
Mark Ingram: $6,000 vs. Dallas Cowboys: Ingram has at least 20 points in two of his three games this season and with a somewhat injured Drew Brees, the Saints should focus on getting their workhorse back plenty of touches. Oh and I forgot to mention, Devonta Freeman BLASTED this defense last week for 193 total yards and 3 TDs.
Carlos Hyde: $5,100 vs. Green Bay Packers: The 49ers only hope of slowing down Green Bay’s high octane offense is controlling the clock with long drives that move the chains via rushing the football. Even with Reggie Bush scheduled to come back, Hyde should get 20 total touches and find himself in the endzone at least once.
ABSOLUTE STEAL: KARLOS WILLIAMS: $3,400 VS. NEW YORK GIANTS: With LeSean McCoy almost certainly not playing, Williams is going to get a full workload against the Giants. In a limited role the 1st three weeks, Williams has rushed for a TD and posted double digit fantasy points in every game.
BIG RISK/BIG REWARD/LOW PRICE: THOMAS RAWLS: $3,000 vs. Detroit Lions: Marshawn Lynch only played in the 1st Quarter in Week 3 which opened the door for the undrafted rookie to rush for over 100 yards. Lynch is questionable again for Week 4 which would give Rawls another excellent opportunity to shine. Problem is, the Seahawks play on Monday Night and we likely won’t know about Lynch’s status until Sunday games are over.
Over Priced Running Backs
Arian Foster: $7,000 vs. Atlanta Falcons: The Texans say Foster has a good shot of playing this weekend. But how much workload will he get? Do they force feed him the ball in his first game back from a serious injury/surgery? Not a risk I’m willing to take, especially at his price.
Jeremy Hill: $6,500 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Perhaps one of the biggest busts through the first three games, Hill is losing out on snaps to Gio Bernard and isn’t getting as many goal-line touches as previously assumed. Now he faces a Chiefs defense that has yet to give up 100 yards or a rushing TD to opposing RBs.
DeMarco Murray: $6,500 vs. Washington Redskins: The Eagles starting RB may be over his hamstring injury but Ryan Mathews showed enough ability to help carry the offense while Murray was inactive in Week 3 that he’s bound to eat into Murray’s carries.
Best Buy Wide Receivers
Randall Cobb: $7,400 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Cobb is clearly over his shoulder injury, need proof? Check out his TD Hat-Trick from Week 3. Now he gets the pleasure of taking on the 49ers who allowed Larry Fitz to catch 9 passes for 134 yards and 2 TDs for a total of 37.4 fantasy points.
T.Y. Hilton: $6,700 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Don’t let the absence of Andrew Luck fool you…Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry (both the #1 WR on their teams) lit up the Jags for at eight catches and a total of 195 yards.
Donte Moncrief: $5,000 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Like his teammate I mentioned above, Moncrief has a great match-up and is coming at a very low price for a player with a TD in three straight games.
ABSOLUTE STEAL: MARVIN JONES vs. Kansas City Chiefs: The Bengals receiver came alive the last two weeks, scoring in each of those outings. Plus he got much more involved in Week 3 catching five passes for a season high 94 yards. Jones should have no problem shredding the Chiefs defense who is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and who just lost their starting cornerback Phillip Gaines to a torn ACL.
BIG RISK/BIG REWARD/LOW PRICE: TY MONTGOMERY: $3,000 vs. San Francisco 49ers: With Davante Adams on the sidelines nursing an ankle injury, Montgomery becomes the Number 3 receiver. He caught a touchdown in Week 3 and has a great match-up vs. the 49ers in Week 4. Plus he’s catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. Only thing that makes him a risk is the fact Rodgers does spread it around a bit.
Over Priced Wide Receivers:
Calvin Johnson: $7,500 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Maybe the defense calling out the Lions plays before they run them (according to Golden Tate) has something to do with it (probably has a lot to do with it if true) but the Lions just don’t look the same on offense. Which is weird since they got better with running back (Ameer Abdullah) and Eric Ebron is starting golive up to his 1st round draft pick status. Anyway, Stafford and Megatron are just not the same duo they once were. Not paying $7,500 on Calvin against the best secondary in the league.
Sammy Watkins: $5,600 vs. New York Giants: It’s almost certain that Watkins will not play this weekend so despite the juicy match-up, don’t put him in your lineups.
Torrey Smith: $4,600 vs. Green Bay Packers: Through three games, Torrey Smith has seven catches. SEVEN. Including ZERO in Week 3. No way. No how. No doubt. Leave him off all rosters.
Best Buy Tight Ends
Greg Olsen: $5,400 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: While Gronk is on a bye this week, Olsen will take over as the 2nd most expensive tight end, and he’s worth every single penny. Who else is Cam Newton throwing to? Ted Ginn and Cory Brown? C’MON MAN.
Martellus Bennett: $4,500 vs. Oakland Raiders: I don’t care if Jay Cutler plays or not, the Raiders are getting DESTROYED by tight ends. They even allowed some guy name Gary to score 25 fantasy points last week.
Charles Clay: $3,300 vs. New York Giants: With Sammy Watkins likely on the bench, Tyrod Taylor will need to target someone other than Percy Harvin. Enter the “magician” Charles Clay who is facing a Giants team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs.
Over Priced Tight Ends:
Jimmy Graham: $6,000 vs. Detroit Lions: Not a bad option if you have some extra money, but why not save the $600 and just use Olsen who is going to have just as good, if not better stats.