Is Risk Still Bigger Than Reward for Patriots in Josh Rosen Sweepstakes?

Now that the price tag has been narrowed for Arizona QB Josh Rosen, should the Patriots try to obtain the 2nd year quarterback, or is the risk still bigger than the reward?

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen has been tossed around in trade conversations this offseason, as the Cardinals may very well have their eyes set on drafting Kyler Murray with the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft. Arizona has just recently narrowed the price tag for their 2nd year QB, saying they would like to get as close to a first round pick as possible in return for Rosen, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report.

The Patriots hold the very last draft pick in the first round this year's draft and are reportedly very interested in Rosen since New England is still looking for the heir to Tom Brady. 

So we are left with one question - would it be justified if the Patriots traded their 32nd overall pick for Rosen?

If we use simple "Belichick Math" as Alex Barth of CLNS Media likes to call it, then Rosen should be a Patriot soon enough.

However, history also tells us that much more comes into play than just the want for a player by Bill Belichick and his staff.

Rosen is in Year 2 of his four-year, $17.5 million contract he signed as a rookie. That would mean in 2022 he will become a free agent. 

The expectation in New England is that Tom Brady will play until he is 45, meaning he has to play through the 2022 season if he wants to meet that timetable. This also means that if the Patriots were to trade for Rosen they would likely have to give him a hefty contract in 2022 for him to sit behind Brady for one more season as his backup. The problem is, that's a contract New England may not be willing to give, let alone afford. 

So, is trading for Rosen worth it for the Patriots?

Not really. The timetables just don't align. 

However, if the Patriots were to trade for Rosen, it could foreshadow what Boston Sports Journal's Greg Bedard wrote recently - that Brady's retirement may be much closer than we expect. It could come as soon as 2020. 

If that's the case, then trading for Rosen absolutely makes sense. 

Based on what we know there are no guarantees that Brady will call it a career after the 2019 season. Because of that, trading for Rosen just doesn't make sense, especially under the assumption that Brady will retire as a Patriot and he will play as long as he wishes.  

The price to trade for Rosen is too much of a gamble. New England needs to add talent to their roster that will have an immediate impact on the team's success. That is the case because Brady's actual playing timetable is still up for debate regardless of when he says he'll retire, so New England must win now while they have their Hall-of-Fame quarterback readily available to play. 

The 32nd overall pick is a valuable one in 2019 for the Patriots, which is why that pick should not be spent on a 2nd-year quarterback who may not even make it to the end of Brady's reign.

Comments (1)
No. 1-1

Great read. Rosen is definitely worth the 32nd overall pick for most teams, but it’s not worth it for the Patriots if Brady continues to play 3-4 years down the road.